Offset / climate neutral

CO2 certificates price development

6/1/25Reading time:

When we talk about CO₂ certificates and their price development, many people think of green forests, smiling children with seedlings and proud women with clean stoves. Sounds romantic? But it's not. Behind each of these images is a tough market with its own rules. Time for an honest look at the price development of CO₂ certificates in the voluntary climate protection market.

What is actually driving the CO₂ certificate price trend?

In the voluntary market, companies buy CO₂ certificates to offset their emissions. Voluntarily, mind you. Not because they have to - but because customers, investors or their own conscience demand it. And this is where the exciting price development of CO₂ certificates begins.

Plain text: certificates are commodities, not donations

One CO₂ certificate represents one tonne of CO2 avoided or sequestered. This is generated by specific projects: Reforestation, solar systems, efficient cooking stoves. Everything has to be planned, certified and monitored. Not a fairy tale, but pure project management.

It can be traded. And as with any commodity, the more intermediaries, the higher the price.

Such projects must be planned, certified, implemented and checked in detail in advance. And then the tonne of CO₂ ends up as a "certificate" in a database - known as a registry. As soon as the tonne of CO₂ ends up as a certificate in a registry, things get interesting for the price development of CO₂ certificates, because from then on it is tradable. It can be sold, resold, passed on and at some point devalued ("decommissioned"). And as with any commodity, the more stages in between, the higher the price.

CO₂ certificates price development: the factors in detail

Good question. Frequent answer: "It depends." Sounds evasive, but it's realistic. Because there is no one price. The price of a certificate can range from a few euros to over 40 euros - depending on

How big the project is
What it achieves
How many certificates it generates
Whether it has additional income
How old the certificates are
And: how many hands it has already passed through

Example:

A hydropower plant generates a lot of electricity - and therefore a lot of certificates. It can cover some of its costs by selling electricity. Here, certificates are a bonus to secure the investment. The price is correspondingly low.

A reforestation project in Africa has no additional income. It lives entirely from the sale of its certificates. And there are not many of them. Result: the price is significantly higher.

"Climate protection projects are not fairy tales. They are project management, financing and control."

The inconvenient truth about the CO₂ certificate price trend

How much of the price really ends up in the project? Well, often nobody really knows. There is no obligation to disclose. Statements such as "80% goes directly into the project" are... Let's say: optimistic.

Because:

In projects with high initial investments (e.g. hydropower plants), a lot of money flows into investors' returns. Without these returns, there would be no investors. Without investors, there would be no project.
In the case of small, locally anchored projects (e.g. cooking stoves, reforestation), more money remains in the project itself because there is no alternative financing.

Interim conclusion: A certificate is a piece of responsibility - not a discount on your conscience

Certificates are not indulgences. And no substitute for genuine climate protection. But they can be part of a serious climate strategy.

Anyone who buys a certificate

knows their emissions
takes responsibility
has an incentive to avoid or reduce emissions

And: those who consciously offset support projects where they have the greatest impact - in regions with little infrastructure, few opportunities, but many ideas.

Our example: PROJECT TOGO

Between all the projects with economic motivation, there are also projects that are close to our hearts. Our PROJECT TOGO is one such project. A natural forest reforestation project in West Africa, with no additional commercial income. No timber sales, no electricity, no side business. The entire project is financed solely through the sale of certificates.

This means that every euro raised through a certificate goes towards reforestation, local jobs, schools, health and education.

PROJECT TOGO shows that there is another way. Economical - but effective.

Conclusion on the development of CO₂ certificate prices

The voluntary market is not a perfect system. But it works. The CO₂ certificate price trend reflects supply, demand and project quality. Those who understand how prices develop make better decisions.

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