Climate Situation · September 2026

What is changing. What companies should know.

Climate signals, events, rules and counter-questions. For everyone who cannot follow everything daily – but wants to understand the relevant developments.

View event radar

Climate stripes for Germany: cool years in blue, warm years in red.

1881

Germany · Annual average

2025

Iceberg

Event radar

Current developments and what they mean for businesses.

All

Storms

Flood

Wildfires

Climate signals

Three signals that remain

Global · September 2026

Second warmest September. Again over 1.5 °C.

September was globally 1.63 °C above the pre-industrial level and was the second warmest September on record. At the same time, it was the second consecutive month above 1.5 °C. For businesses: do not plan for heat, water stress and extreme weather in isolation.

Western Europe · September 2026

Drought becomes a question of logistics.

Western Europe experienced its warmest September on record, matching 2023. In parts of the Rhine, Danube, Vistula and Garonne-Dordogne, river flows were at record lows. For businesses, water availability and transport routes go hand in hand.

Oceans · September 2026

Warmer seas are no longer a marginal issue.

The average sea surface temperature outside the polar regions reached a record high of 21.05 °C in September. For businesses: weather patterns, fisheries, tourism, ports, and infrastructure are also affected.

Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service

The Climate Situation Traffic Light

Green

Important Information

Yellow

May become relevant

Orange

Potential impacts

Red

Impact visible

The situation in pictures

From orbit.

From orbit.

Satellites show what is often only visible on the ground much later. Three current images – and what they tell us about our changing climate.

Satellite image of Greenland's ice landscape

NASA Earth Observatory

Greenland's ice on the move

Greenland's ice on the move

New footage shows sustained high melting activity at several glaciers. The meltwater is flowing faster into the sea – with long-term consequences for global sea levels.

Satellite image of Hurricane Polo

NASA Earth Observatory

A stronger hurricane over the Atlantic

A stronger hurricane over the Atlantic

Satellite data shows rapid intensification. Warmer oceans favour the formation and strengthening of tropical cyclones – with rising risks for coastal regions.

Satellite image of the sea surface temperature in the Atlantic

NASA Earth Observatory

Warmer Oceans, New Normal

Warmer Oceans, New Normal

Surface temperatures in the Atlantic are significantly above the long-term average. This affects ecosystems, weather and the livelihoods of many regions.

Climate protection in Germany

The road to 2030.

Not every reduction is already an achievement of the target. This graphic shows the key parameters: current status, projection, and the gap to the German target.

Projection of emissions until 2030

Projection status 2026

-62.6%

According to current UBA projections, this is how far total emissions would fall by 2030 compared to 1990. A gap of around 30 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents remains to reach the German target of −65%.

Source: Federal Environment Agency, 2025 emissions data and 2026 projections. The lines show key parameters, not an annual time series.

Climate protection in Germany

The road to 2030.

Not every reduction is already an achievement of the target. This graphic shows the key parameters: current status, projection, and the gap to the German target.

Projection of emissions until 2030

Projection status 2026

-62.6%

According to current UBA projections, this is how far total emissions would fall by 2030 compared to 1990. A gap of around 30 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents remains to reach the German target of −65%.

Source: Federal Environment Agency, 2025 emissions data and 2026 projections. The lines show key parameters, not an annual time series.

Climate protection in Germany

The road to 2030.

Not every reduction is already an achievement of the target. This graphic shows the key parameters: current status, projection, and the gap to the German target.

Projection of emissions until 2030

Projection status 2026

-62.6%

According to current UBA projections, this is how far total emissions would fall by 2030 compared to 1990. A gap of around 30 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents remains to reach the German target of −65%.

Source: Federal Environment Agency, 2025 emissions data and 2026 projections. The lines show key parameters, not an annual time series.

CLIMATE SIGNALS

Three signals that remain.

September shows that heat, water and logistics should not be planned in isolation from each other.

G LOBAL · SEP TEMBE R 20 26

Second warmest September. Again over 1.5 °C.

Globally, September was 1.63 °C above pre-industrial levels, making it the second warmest September on record. At the same time, it was the second consecutive month above 1.5 °C.

For businesses: Do not plan for heat, water stress and extreme weather in isolation. Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service.

REGULATION IN FOCUS

Climate resilience comes closer at the European level.

The EU Commission is working on an integrated framework for climate resilience and climate risk management. Adoption is planned for the second half of 2026.

What businesses can prepare now

This does not yet create a new direct obligation. However, climate risks are becoming more closely linked to infrastructure, security of supply, investment and competitiveness. Anyone who makes relevant dependencies transparent today creates a better basis for subsequent decisions.

Source: European Commission. A specific publication date has not been confirmed.

REGULATION IN FOCUS

Climate resilience comes closer at the European level.

The EU Commission is working on an integrated framework for climate resilience and climate risk management. Adoption is planned for the second half of 2026.

What businesses can prepare now

This does not yet create a new direct obligation. However, climate risks are becoming more closely linked to infrastructure, security of supply, investment and competitiveness. Anyone who makes relevant dependencies transparent today creates a better basis for subsequent decisions.

Source: European Commission. A specific publication date has not been confirmed.

Climate adaptation

Water is becoming a resilience issue.

Water is becoming a resilience issue.

Climate adaptation does not only begin after floods or droughts. It starts with the question of which processes rely on reliable water, functioning transport routes, and a stable energy supply.

01

Water & Heat

Which locations or processes are vulnerable to heat and water scarcity?

02

Pre-Products & Transport

Which precursor products or transports depend on rivers, ports, or regions with high drought?

03

Alternative options

What alternatives are available before an event directly affects operations?

Source: European Commission

Voices in Discourse

One situation. Two perspectives. The better question.

Another month above 1.5 °C does not trigger an automatic obligation. However, it helps to ask the right resilience questions earlier.

What does a month above 1.5 °C mean?

ISSUE IN DISPUTE

What does another month above 1.5 °C mean?

Supporting perspective

The crucial question is no longer whether climate risks will become relevant at some point. It is: which systems do we need to make more resilient now?

Skeptical perspective

A single or even two exceptionally warm months do not replace a long-term climate record and do not automatically justify new obligations.

The better question: What should businesses prepare for today, even though the next specific event cannot yet be predicted?

Voices in Discourse

One situation. Two perspectives. The better question.

Another month above 1.5 °C does not trigger an automatic obligation. However, it helps to ask the right resilience questions earlier.

What does a month above 1.5 °C mean?

ISSUE IN DISPUTE

What does another month above 1.5 °C mean?

Supporting perspective

The crucial question is no longer whether climate risks will become relevant at some point. It is: which systems do we need to make more resilient now?

Skeptical perspective

A single or even two exceptionally warm months do not replace a long-term climate record and do not automatically justify new obligations.

The better question: What should businesses prepare for today, even though the next specific event cannot yet be predicted?

Voices in Discourse

One situation. Two perspectives. The better question.

Another month above 1.5 °C does not trigger an automatic obligation. However, it helps to ask the right resilience questions earlier.

What does a month above 1.5 °C mean?

ISSUE IN DISPUTE

What does another month above 1.5 °C mean?

Supporting perspective

The crucial question is no longer whether climate risks will become relevant at some point. It is: which systems do we need to make more resilient now?

Skeptical perspective

A single or even two exceptionally warm months do not replace a long-term climate record and do not automatically justify new obligations.

The better question: What should businesses prepare for today, even though the next specific event cannot yet be predicted?

Reading list · Recently added

Read. Then think further.

No compulsory reading and no book recommendations to tick off. Three new perspectives that make questions bigger and often clearer.

History · 2025

The Climate of History in a Planetary Age

Dipesh Chakrabarty asks what climate change does to our ideas of modernity, history, and globalisation.

Suhrkamp

Present · 2025

One planet, many worlds

A new book on the tension between the planetary and the global – and why simple answers are rarely enough.

Suhrkamp

Ethics · 2025

Climate ethics

Lukas Sparenborg and Darrel Moellendorf gather perspectives on intergenerational responsibility and the moral questions of the climate crisis.

Suhrkamp

Transparency

Source before statement.

Events · GDACS

The event radar links to the respective original reports. They serve to contextualise current events, not as a forecast.

Climate now · Copernicus

The September report bundles global temperature, low river flows in Western Europe and record sea surface temperatures.

Climate resilience · European Commission

The Federal Environment Agency provides emissions data and projections for Germany. Binding targets and changes are verified at the original source for the regulatory horizon.